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References


"Low Level
Radiation Health Effects: Compiling  the Data"

Revision 1
March 19, 1998

by Radiation, Science, and Health, Inc.,
Edited by J. Muckerheide

1.2.1
Japanese Atomic Bomb
Survivors

1.2.1.1
Cancer/Leukemia>

References

BEIR V (1990), colon cancer, no "excess has been evident in doses below about 1.0 Gy", yet BEIR reports risk as linear to zero dose. This significantly misrepresents the data.

BEIR V (1990), leukemia, "the rate of mortality is signifigantly elevated at 0.4 Gy and above but not at lesser doses", yet reports risk as linear to zero dose.

BEIR V (1990), "prostate cancer mortality ...showed no significant increase with increasing dose... the estimated relative risk at 1 Gy (shielded kerma) was 1.05; the absolute risk was 0.03 excess cancer deaths/l04 PYGy; and the attributable risk was 1.95%."

BEIR V (1990) "mortality from multiple myeloma has been observed at doses as low as 0.5-0.99 Gy" (50-99 rad), yet BEIR reports risk as linear to zero dose. This also misrepresents the data.

BEIR V (1990) stomach cancer,"the new dosimetry...shows...a highly significant radiation- related relative risk of mortality from stomach cancer...neither difference is statistically significant...with the single exception of leukemia, the largest excess observed among specific cancer sites. As noted above, however, the relative risk is not large since this is a commonly occurring tumor in the general population." However, BEIR reports risk as linear to zero dose, significantly misrepresenting the data.

Dr. Sadao Hattori, Vice President and Director of Research of CRIEPI, leukemia, (1994) [PubMed]: "people who received radiation from the atomic bomb show...that about 8 cGy, is the optimum dose for the suppression of leukemia"

Professor Emeritus Dr. Sohei Kondo (Kondo 1993), "...tumor incidence among survivors of...people who were exposed to 1-9 rad appear to have lower death rates from leukemia and from all other cancers than unexposed people, indicating that radiation at these doses has no harmful effect."

Professor and Chairman emeritus Dr. Don Luckey, Dept of Biochemistry, School of Medicine, U. Missouri-Columbia, (1991), data ignored, "The reliance of some radiobiologists upon one or more variants of the linear model made them oblivious to other models which better fit their own data. The term 'excess risk' makes no allowance for radiation hormesis. Several examples illustrate the omission of data to accomodate the zero thesis."

Professor Emeritus Myron Pollycove, MD, Laboratory Medicine and Radiology, UCSF, demonstrates model bias, "Shimizu, et al. (1992)...concluded that...dose response 'in the less-than-0.5 Sv region fails to indicate the presence of hormesis' ...(however) with ... an empirical polynomial function... The RR of 0.6 at 0.075 Sv is 1.5 SD (standard deviations) less than l (p<0.15)...(t)he mortality RR of 0.83 in the 0.200 to 0.499 Sv dose category is 3.2 SD below 1 (p="0.001)" and is the most statistically significant data point of the entire study.
   If the only mathematical models used for analysis are those that a priori exclude a U-shaped dose-response relationship, it is not surprising that such analysis 'fails to indicate the presence of hormesis.'"

Drs. J. Alvarez and F. Seiler (1996) apply mathematical analyses to the health effects data for the Japanese survivors that are not arbitrarily constrained to the linear model. "The most dramatic impact is that the mortality ratios at the lowest doses do not go to unity as the dose decreases…" this "falsifies the results of BEIR V and ICRP 60… The linear model and its parameters are now without experimental foundation…"

Linear regressions using mortality ratios instead of relative risks, without the constraint that the constant term be equal to 1, weighted by the number of subjects in each group… The best fit was obtained when the last, highly uncertain data point was deleted."
 

     

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