Revision 1
March 19, 1998
by Radiation, Science, and Health, Inc.,
Edited by J. Muckerheide

1.2.6
Natural Radiation and Radioactivity

1.2.6.2
Natural Background: Populations

"In late 1971 the Environmental Statement Project was formed at Argonne National Laboratory to aid the U. S. Atomic Energy Commission in the preparation of environmental statements for the nuclear facilities being licensed by the Commission. Since methodology for assessing the impact of such facilities was in its infancy, it was necessary for us to develop methods and programs adequate to the task. ... This report, ARIP I, concerns itself with evaluation of the carcinogenic hazard that might be associated with the radiation and radioactivity from nuclear facilities."

"(T)he hypothesis has been advanced that a significant fraction of human cancer mortality may be due to the human radiation background. (Pauling 1958, Gofman 1971, Tamplin 1971, ICRP 1969, ANL 1970, BEIR 1972, Hutchison 1972). For a normalized irradiation of 170 millirem/yr, these authors have estimated U. S. cancer mortality excesses of about 3,000 to 100,000 per year, i.e., about 1% to 30% of current experience. Since the identification of so important an etilogic factor would be an event of major significance in the field of cancer epidemiology, we addressed ourselves to the examination (Frigerio, Eckerman and Stowe in print) of the degree to which these hypotheses could be justified from current vital statistics and from the known variations in the radiation background.

"This examination occupied a fair span of time, during which the mists of our comprehension cleared only slowly... we present is less in logical than in chronological order. We hope thus to indicate how it was possible for us to begin with the presumption that background radiation must be carcinogenic only to be forced, after something very much like the classic Drunkard’s Walk, (Schreider 1966) to conclude that it is not."

In consideration of the additive linear model, r = ro + kD, Frigerio states:

In presenting the multiplicative model, r = ro + ro(D/DD):